There are still two weeks left in regular-season play, but the playoff fates of all eight local football teams are already known.
Anna, Fort Loramie, Minster and New Bremen have either already clinched or are very likely to earn playoff berths while Sidney, Lehman Catholic, Riverside and Versailles face nearly improbable odds at earning a postseason berth.
That’s according to Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic50.net, which is the go-to place for Ohio football fans looking for projections of how teams’ postseason hopes will shake out.
Pasteur is a mathematics professor at the College of Wooster and has run the website for a decade. He publishes rankings each week of the best 50 teams in Ohio regardless of division using his own formula, but his most popular feature is detailed computer projections he runs that tabulate possible results and teams’ possible Harbins points.
The Ohio High School Athletic Association determines playoff berths with the Harbins points system, which awards teams points for victories (first-level points) and points for wins by defeated opponents (second-level points).
Teams are divided into seven divisions, with four regions in each division. The top eight teams in each region advance to the playoffs, and the top four teams in each region host first-round games. Pasteur runs playoff scenarios through a software system and projects postseason berths.
Anna, which moved up to No. 1 in Division VI in the state Associated Press poll this week after dominating Coldwater, has a playoff berth locked up according to Pasteur.
The Rockets (7-1, 5-1 Midwest Athletic Conference) will need to win out to earn a home playoff game — but even that might not be enough to earn a first-round home game according to Pasteur’s models, which say there’s a 45 percent chance the squad could finish outside the top four in Division VI, Region 23.
Region 23, which Minster is also in, is one of the state’s best competition-wise. Undefeated Gibsonburg is likely to not have enough Harbins points to earn a playoff berth in the region even if it wins out and finishes 10-0.
Minster, on the other hand, is likely to earn a playoff berth. The Wildcats (7-1, 5-1) can clinch a playoff berth according to Pasteur’s models with a victory over Versailles this week. Beating the Tigers and New Bremen in Week 10 give the team a 47 percent chance at hosting a first-round game.
There’s less mystery for Fort Loramie and New Bremen, which are both in Div. VII, Region 28. The Redskins (7-1, 6-0 Cross County Conference) have a postseason berth wrapped up and would have a 99 percent chance at a first-round home game if they win out.
The Cardinals (6-2, 4-2 MAC) are also likely going to earn their first playoff berth since 2004 according to Pasteur’s models.
New Bremen has a 56 percent chance at making the playoffs if it loses the last two games and a 91 percent chance of making the postseason if it beats Delphos St. John’s this week and loses to Minster next week. A win over the Wildcats would clinch a playoff berth and give the team a 93 percent chance at a home game. A loss would leave the team with a just a two percent chance at hosting a first-round game.
Riverside and Lehman Catholic are also both in Region 28 and have slimmer playoff hopes.
The Pirates (4-4, 3-2 Northwest Central Conference) will almost certainly earn a postseason berth by knocking off Lima Perry (5-3, 5-0) this Friday and following with a win over Ridgemont next week. They need to win both, though. Losing to Perry and beating Ridgemont would give the team just a one percent chance at a playoff berth.
The Cavaliers (3-5, 3-2) have not officially been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but Pasteur’s model give the team a 0 percent chance at a playoff berth, even if they win their final two games of the season, including a Week 10 matchup with Perry.
Sidney (3-5, 2-3 Miami Valley League Valley Division) is holding on to slim playoff hopes in Div. II, Region 7. If the Yellow Jackets win out and finish 5-5, Pasteur gives the team a 1 percent chance at earning a playoff berth.
Versailles (3-5, 2-3 MAC) is in the same boat as Lehman in Div. V, Region 20. Though the Tigers’ haven’t been mathematically eliminated, Pasteur’s models don’t give the team any shot at earning a playoff berth, even if they win out.
Reach Bryant Billing at 937-538-4818, or follow @SidneyOHSports on Twitter and @BryantBillingSDN on Facebook.