SIDNEY — The regular season is winding down for high school football, and nearly every area team is in contention for a playoff berth.
According to Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50, Lehman Catholic, Fort Loramie, Minster and Riverside have clinched postseason berths, while Anna and Sidney can with wins this Friday.
Pasteur is a mathematics professor at the College of Wooster and has run the website for nearly a decade. He publishes rankings each week of the best 50 teams in Ohio regardless of division as well computer model predictions of every game in the state.
The Ohio High School Athletic Association determines playoff berths with the Harbins points system, which awards teams points for victories (first-level points) and points for wins by defeated opponents (second-level points). Teams are divided into seven divisions, with four regions in each division. The top eight teams in each region advance to the playoffs. Pasteur runs playoff scenarios through a software system and projects postseason berths.
Even with two games left in the season, Lehman Catholic, Fort Loramie, Minster and Riverside have locked up playoff berths according to Pasteur.
Lehman (7-1) is ranked second in the official Division VII, Region 28 OHSAA rankings, while Minster is fifth. The top four teams in each region host a first-round playoff game, and Pasteur gives the Cavaliers a 99 percent chance of a home game. A win for Lehman over either Lima Perry this Friday or Riverside on Oct. 27 would clinch a home game.
The strength of Minster’s schedule has helped the team secure a playoff berth. Though the Wildcats are 4-4, they’ve earned a boatload of second-level points by beating teams with a combined record of 16-16. Minster needs to win its final two games against Versailles and Anna to host a playoff game, though there’s a possibility a win over just one opponent would be enough for a home game.
Fort Loramie (6-2) is ranked fourth in Region 28. Aside from having clinched a playoff berth, Pasteur gives the Redskins an 88 percent chance at a first-round home game.
Riverside (5-3) is ranked sixth in Region 28. Though the Pirates have a postseason berth secured, all chances of a home game rest in the Week 10 matchup against Lehman. A win over the Cavaliers would give Riverside an 80 percent chance at hosting a first-round game.
Anna and Sidney are both near-locks for the playoffs and can clinch postseason berths with wins on Friday.
The Rockets (7-1) are ranked No. 1 in Division V, Region 20 and have a 99 percent chance at a playoff berth even if they lost their final two games against Coldwater and Minster. A win over either would clinch a berth, and a win against both would clinch a home game. Anna’s chances of a first-round home game will likely hinge on this week’s game against Coldwater.
Sidney (7-1) is ranked fourth in Division II, Region 8 and has a 99 percent chance at a playoff berth. A win against Vandalia-Butler on Friday would clinch a postseason berth and give the Yellow Jackets a 26 percent chance of a home playoff game. Sidney would be a near-lock for a home first-round game (94 percent) with a win over Butler this Friday and a win at Greenville in Week 10.
Versailles (3-5) and New Bremen (3-5) are the only area teams out of playoff contention. Though neither have been mathematically eliminated, Versailles and New Bremen both have a one percent chance at qualifying.
