SIDNEY — The regular season is winding down for high school football, and nearly every area team is in contention for a playoff berth.
According to Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50, Fort Loramie and Minster have clinched postseason berths, while Anna can with a win this Friday.
Pasteur is a mathematics professor at the College of Wooster and has run the website for nearly a decade. He publishes rankings each week of the best 50 teams in Ohio regardless of division as well computer model predictions for playoff berths.
The Ohio High School Athletic Association determines playoff berths with the Harbins points system, which awards teams points for victories (first-level points) and points for wins by defeated opponents (second-level points).
Teams are divided into seven divisions, with four regions in each division. The top eight teams in each region advance to the playoffs, and the top four teams in each region host first-round games. Pasteur runs playoff scenarios through a software system and projects postseason berths.
Even with three games left in regular season, Fort Loramie and Minster have locked up postseason berths according to Pasteur, while Anna, New Bremen, Riverside and Lehman Catholic all have high probabilities of making the postseason.
Sidney’s chances of making the postseason likely depend upon winning out, while Versailles has no chance.
The Redskins and Wildcats — which are ranked first and third, respectively, in Division VII, Region 28 — have playoff berths locked up according to Pasteur. Fort Loramie (6-1) has already locked up a first-round home playoff game, while Minster (5-2) will need to win two of its last three games in order to secure a postseason berth.
New Bremen (4-3) is also in Div. VII, Region 28 and has a 66 percent chance at its first playoff berth since 2004. Winning two of their last three games would give the Cardinals an 87 percent chance, while winning out would give them a 99 percent chance. They would only have a nine percent chance if they fail to win any more games.
Northwest Central Conference squads Riverside and Lehman are also in the playoff hunt in Div. VII, Region 28.
Riverside (4-3) currently has a 77 percent chance at the postseason but would have a 99 percent chance by winning two of its last three games.
Lehman (4-3) has a 55 percent chance at making the playoffs but will need to win at least two of its last three to have a realistic shot. Winning only one of their last three would give the Cavaliers a 12 percent chance, while winning two of their last three would give them an 87 percent chance.
Anna (5-2) has an 81 percent chance at making the Div. V, Region 18 playoffs and can clinch a postseason berth with a win at Coldwater this Friday. If the Rockets lose to Coldwater but win their last two games, they’ll still have an 81 percent chance at the playoffs.
Versailles (2-5) is also in D-V, Region 18 but has been eliminated from playoff contention according to Pasteur.
Sidney (4-3) is currently 13th in Div. II, Region 8. The Yellow Jackets have just a three percent chance at a postseason berth according to Pasteur if they lose this Friday’s game against Troy and win their last two games against Vandalia-Butler and Greenville.
However, if Sidney wins out and finishes 7-3, it has a 99 percent chance at a playoff berth.
